What would be the result of a referendum tomorrow if the last five poll results hold true (as at 7th March 2018)
MILLIONS |
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14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
2016 REFERENDUM RESULT |
June 2016, in the referendum, 17.4 million voted for Brexit and 16.1 million voted to stay |
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STAY | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
LEAVE | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
subtract those who are notSTICKING WITH DECISION |
Average of last 5 polls say 88% of those voting stay continue to prefer stay, 84% of those voting leave continue to prefer leave |
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add those whoCHANGED THEIR MINDS |
Average of the last 5 polls say 5% of remainers now want to leave and 7% of leavers now want to remain |
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addNEW 18 YEAR-OLDS |
Add 1.25 million new 18 year olds since June 2016 who can vote. Assume same voting pattern as 18-24s in referendum with 58% turnout and 75% in favour of remain |
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subtractDECEASED VOTERS |
1.25 million 65+ year olds who will have left the electoral roll (75% turnout, 66% favouring leave) |
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addNON-VOTERS WHO NOW EXPRESS A PREFERENCE |
12.9 million on the electoral register did not vote, but 67% of them now express a preference in the polls: 43% to stay, 24% to leave |
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THIS IS THE REFERENDUM RESULT IF THERE WERE A
REFERENDUM TOMORROW |
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Three groups failed to get a vote at the referendum. Some considered the non-inclusion of them on the electoral register to be unfair. These are added below. |
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addEU CITIZENS IN THE UK | 2.2 million (non-UK) EU citizens, resident in the UK did not have a vote. They are the most likely to be affected by the decision. Many have families here, children in schools here. Doctors, nurses, fruit-pickers, waiters, chefs and many run businesses and pay their taxes here. Only if they were from Malta, Cyprus, Gibraltar or Ireland did they get a vote. Assume most (say 70% with 70% turnout) would vote to stay if they had a vote. |
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addLONG STANDING EXPATS | 700,000 expats who have lived outside of the UK for more than 15 years did not get a vote. Assume most (say 70% with 70% turnout) would vote to stay if they had a vote. |
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add16-17 YEAR-OLDS | 1.5 million 16-17 year olds wanted to vote as they had the opportunity in Scotland for the Scottish referendum. Assume their preference and turnout would be the same as 18-24s. |
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14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 |