2016 REFERENDUM RESULT

 June 2016, in the referendum, 17.4 million voted for Brexit and 16.1 million voted to stay

subtract those who are not

STICKING WITH DECISION

Trend from last 45 polls say 90% of those voting stay continue to prefer stay, 82% of those voting leave continue to prefer leave

add those who

CHANGED THEIR MINDS

Trend from the last 45 polls say 5% of remainers now want to leave and 7% of leavers now want to remain

add

NEW 18 YEAR-OLDS

Add nearly 2 million new 18 year olds since June 2016 who can vote.  Assume same voting pattern as 18-24s in referendum with 58% turnout and 75% in favour of remain

subtract

DECEASED VOTERS

And 2 million 65+ year olds who will have left the electoral roll (75% turnout, 66% favouring leave)

add

NON-VOTERS WHO NOW EXPRESS A PREFERENCE

12.9 million on the electoral register did not vote, but 67% of them now express a preference in the polls: 45% to stay, 22% to leave

THIS IS THE REFERENDUM RESULT IF THERE WERE A REFERENDUM TOMORROW
11% majority for Remaining (compared to a 3.8% majority for leaving at the referendum), a swing of nearly 15%

Three groups failed to get a vote at the referendum.  Some considered the non-inclusion of them on the electoral register to be unfair.  These are added below.

add

EU CITIZENS IN THE UK

2.2 million (non-UK) EU citizens, resident in the UK did not have a vote.  They are the most likely to be affected by the decision.  Many have families here, children in schools here.  Doctors, nurses, fruit-pickers, waiters, chefs and many run businesses and pay their taxes here.  Only if they were from Malta, Cyprus, Gibraltar or Ireland did they get a vote.  Assume most (say 70% with 70% turnout) would vote to stay if they had a vote.

add

LONG STANDING EXPATS

700,000 expats who have lived outside of the UK for more than 15 years did not get a vote.  Assume most (say 70% with 70% turnout) would vote to stay if they had a vote.

add

16-17 YEAR-OLDS

1.5 million 16-17 year olds wanted to vote as they had the opportunity in Scotland for the Scottish referendum.  Assume their preference and turnout would be the same as 18-24s.