2016 REFERENDUM RESULT

 June 2016, in the referendum, 17.4 million voted for Brexit and 16.1 million voted to stay

subtract those who are not

STICKING WITH DECISION

Average of last 5 polls say 88% of those voting stay continue to prefer stay, 84% of those voting leave continue to prefer leave

add those who

CHANGED THEIR MINDS

Average of the last 5 polls say 5% of remainers now want to leave and 7% of leavers now want to remain

add

NEW 18 YEAR-OLDS

Add 1.25 million new 18 year olds since June 2016 who can vote.  Assume same voting pattern as 18-24s in referendum with 58% turnout and 75% in favour of remain

subtract

DECEASED VOTERS

1.25 million 65+ year olds who will have left the electoral roll (75% turnout, 66% favouring leave)

add

NON-VOTERS WHO NOW EXPRESS A PREFERENCE

12.9 million on the electoral register did not vote, but 67% of them now express a preference in the polls: 43% to stay, 24% to leave

THIS IS THE REFERENDUM RESULT IF THERE WERE A REFERENDUM TOMORROW
8% majority for Remaining (compared to a 3.8% majority for leaving at the referendum)

Three groups failed to get a vote at the referendum.  Some considered the non-inclusion of them on the electoral register to be unfair.  These are added below.

add

EU CITIZENS IN THE UK

2.2 million (non-UK) EU citizens, resident in the UK did not have a vote.  They are the most likely to be affected by the decision.  Many have families here, children in schools here.  Doctors, nurses, fruit-pickers, waiters, chefs and many run businesses and pay their taxes here.  Only if they were from Malta, Cyprus, Gibraltar or Ireland did they get a vote.  Assume most (say 70% with 70% turnout) would vote to stay if they had a vote.

add

LONG STANDING EXPATS

700,000 expats who have lived outside of the UK for more than 15 years did not get a vote.  Assume most (say 70% with 70% turnout) would vote to stay if they had a vote.

add

16-17 YEAR-OLDS

1.5 million 16-17 year olds wanted to vote as they had the opportunity in Scotland for the Scottish referendum.  Assume their preference and turnout would be the same as 18-24s.