What would be the result of a referendum tomorrow if the last five poll results hold true (as at 27th September 2018)

       

MILLIONS

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2016 REFERENDUM RESULT

 June 2016, in the referendum, 17.4 million voted for Brexit and 16.1 million voted to stay

                                                                               
STAY                                                              
LEAVE                                                    
                                                                                       
subtract those who are not

STICKING WITH DECISION

Trend from last 45 polls say 90% of those voting stay continue to prefer stay, 82% of those voting leave continue to prefer leave

                                                                               
STAY                                                                            
LEAVE                                                                              
                                                                                       
add those who

CHANGED THEIR MINDS

Trend from the last 45 polls say 5% of remainers now want to leave and 7% of leavers now want to remain

                                                                               
STAY                                                                  
LEAVE                                                                        
                                                                                       
add

NEW 18 YEAR-OLDS

Add nearly 2 million new 18 year olds since June 2016 who can vote.  Assume same voting pattern as 18-24s in referendum with 58% turnout and 75% in favour of remain

                                                                               
STAY                                                            
LEAVE                                                                    
                                                                                       
subtract

DECEASED VOTERS

And 2 million 65+ year olds who will have left the electoral roll (75% turnout, 66% favouring leave)

                                                                               
STAY                                                                
LEAVE                                                                            
                                                                                       
add

NON-VOTERS WHO NOW EXPRESS A PREFERENCE

12.9 million on the electoral register did not vote, but 67% of them now express a preference in the polls: 45% to stay, 22% to leave

                                                                               
STAY                  
LEAVE                                                      
                                                                                       

THIS IS THE REFERENDUM RESULT IF THERE WERE A REFERENDUM TOMORROW
11% majority for Remaining (compared to a 3.8% majority for leaving at the referendum), a swing of nearly 15%

                                                                                       

Three groups failed to get a vote at the referendum.  Some considered the non-inclusion of them on the electoral register to be unfair.  These are added below.

                                                                                       
add

EU CITIZENS IN THE UK

2.2 million (non-UK) EU citizens, resident in the UK did not have a vote.  They are the most likely to be affected by the decision.  Many have families here, children in schools here.  Doctors, nurses, fruit-pickers, waiters, chefs and many run businesses and pay their taxes here.  Only if they were from Malta, Cyprus, Gibraltar or Ireland did they get a vote.  Assume most (say 70% with 70% turnout) would vote to stay if they had a vote.

                                                                               
STAY        
LEAVE                                                  
                                                                                       
add

LONG STANDING EXPATS

700,000 expats who have lived outside of the UK for more than 15 years did not get a vote.  Assume most (say 70% with 70% turnout) would vote to stay if they had a vote.

                                                                               
STAY      
LEAVE                                                
                                                                                       
add

16-17 YEAR-OLDS

1.5 million 16-17 year olds wanted to vote as they had the opportunity in Scotland for the Scottish referendum.  Assume their preference and turnout would be the same as 18-24s.

                                                                               
STAY
LEAVE                                                
                                                                                       
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