This dashboard provides a selection of data sets and poll results so that you can try out some 'what if' questions about the likely mood of the country with respect to Brexit and what would happen if there were a second referendum. The dashboard has a set of likely assumptions already chosen. You start with the UK population on the left and that is diminished by the turnout. The population is stored in five year age-groups so that both turnout and voting can apply to the appropriate age group. There are two populations, one is the total UK 18+ population and one is the total UK 18+ electoral registered population. The second is just a fixed proportion
across the age groups (46500/53945=86%) of the first because there is no easily available data on electoral register ages. The
selected population is then fed into the turnout box which diminishes the
numbers according to age group. 12.9 million out of 44 million did not vote at the election and the turnout was different across age-groups. The turnout by age, also, can only be estimated because age is not recorded when you vote. Then the turnout is fed into the voting box, by age-group because we know that different age-groups voted differently. That gives the basic results. The figures for 2016 should be the same as the actual vote on the day, but turnout and voting are only estimates given to the nearest whole number and population
projections are those estimated for the UK from 2014 (which were the latest available
when this was written), so there will be
the usual small errors. One balancing factor has been introduced across all
ages to ensure that the actual total number voting in 2016 corresponds nearly to the total shown in the Remain/Leave calculations for 2016.
(That is it boosts the turnout, irrespective of actual vote preference, by
33552/32134 or adding 4.4% across all the figures - that is without bias). This does not affect the outcome
significantly, but produces a nearer estimate of the actual vote numbers.|
The last box on the top line
allows for people changing their minds. There have been 100+ polls since the referendum which have shown changes of mind. Actually
about 90% of remainers have stuck to their original decision. 82% of
leavers have stuck to their decision and that figure is going down steadily. The change-of-mind matrix I have selected is the
latest of the polls I have included.