This dashboard provides a selection of data sets and poll results so that you can try out some 'what if' questions about the likely mood of the country with respect to Brexit and what would happen if there were a second referendum. The dashboard has a set of likely assumptions already chosen. You start with the UK population on the left and that is diminished by the turnout. The population is stored in five year age-groups so that both turnout and voting can apply to the appropriate age group. There are two populations, one is the total UK 18+ population and one is the total UK 18+ electoral registered population. The second is just a fixed proportion
across the age groups (46500/53945=86%) of the first because there is no easily available data on electoral register ages. The
selected population is then fed into the turnout box which diminishes the
numbers according to age group. 12.9 million out of 44 million did not vote at the election and the turnout was different across age-groups. The turnout by age, also, can only be estimated because age is not recorded when you vote. Then the turnout is fed into the voting box, by age-group because we know that different age-groups voted differently. That gives the basic results. The figures for 2016 should be the same as the actual vote on the day, but turnout and voting are only estimates given to the nearest whole number and population
projections are those estimated for the UK from 2014 (which were the latest available
when this was written), so there will be
the usual small errors. One balancing factor has been introduced across all
ages to ensure that the actual total number voting in 2016 corresponds nearly to the total shown in the Remain/Leave calculations for 2016.
(That is it boosts the turnout, irrespective of actual vote preference, by
33552/32134 or adding 4.4% across all the figures - that is without bias). This does not affect the outcome
significantly, but produces a nearer estimate of the actual vote numbers.

The last box on the top line
allows for people changing their minds. There have been 100+ polls since the referendum which have shown changes of mind. Actually
about 90% of remainers have stuck to their original decision. 82% of
leavers have stuck to their decision and that figure is going down steadily. The change-of-mind matrix I have selected is the
latest of the polls I have included.

The second line enables you to chose alternatives that may either be implemented by government or will happen over time anyway. The first box suggests that people broadly will continue to hold the same view as they get older. That is argued in the help box in that selection. The second box assumes that the government allows the introduction of voting for those expats who have been abroad for more than 15 years. That
was part of the previous conservative government's manifesto and more details can be seen in the help box.

The others are self-explanatory. You can select or de-select an assumption using the tick box and it will include or remove it from the results.
If you click on the arrows it will provide a set of results so far, so you can
check the arithmetic.

The results give the voting by age (which you can show or hide) and the adjustments due to the assumptions. If
the results show a change over the years, from LEAVE to REMAIN an estimate of when that crossover will happen is made
based on the mid-year and the percentage pre and post change. The
final result can be viewed on a graph and new graphs can be put on top of the
first to compare different scenarios.

You can change most numerical elements, but my number checking of inputs is poor, so if you put silly numbers in the page is likely to give you an error. If, after
altering a number, the results do not change, it may be necessary to click on the RECALCULATE button. Any problems, email me: a.a.low@staffs.ac.uk.