|Every hour, more than 70 leave voters change their minds while less than 15 remain voters change their minds.1||In a second referendum the non-voters from last time would substantially overturn the decision for Brexit.5||UK citizens, residents and electorate don't want Brexit.7||The swing to Labour at the election was 58% greater if the candidate voted against Article 50.12|
|Leave voter support for Brexit is dropping five faster than support for Remain from Remain voters2||In the last year, GB swing to remain is 5.8% and growing, trumping the majority for Brexit. 6||With previous non-voters voting, if a referendum happened now, Remain would win a 1.4 million majority10||Before the referendum 58% of the polls were for Remain, Since then 64% are for Remain9|
|5.3 million, and growing, of those who did not vote in 2016 now say they want to remain in the EU3||All the Labour candidates who voted against Article 50 and who stood for election in 2016, retained their seats13||Only 27% of the UK voted Leave. If all adult residents and citizens of the UK were allowed to vote now, Remain wins by 5 million, 38% of the UK 1||Every day 2,050 new 18 year-olds can vote and about the same number of older voters leave the register, a shift in favour of Remain of about 390,000 per year14|
|But 3.4 million and falling, of those who did not vote in 2016 now say they want to leave the EU.4||All things being equal, without non-voters, Remain would win a referendum by July 2020 as new 18 year-olds vote and older voters no longer vote.8||The YouGov polls asked 'was it right to vote to leave the EU'. The UK has answered NO, NO and NO again, since the election.15||570,000 leavers have changed their minds since August 2016, but only 110,000 remainers changed their minds.1|
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1. According to YouGov polls since 1st August 2016, 3.26% drop in support for Leave among Leave voters, and 0.66% drop in support for Remain among Remain voters; see no2brexit.com for data. These are linear regression averages on all the re-weighted data. 2. See 1, 3.26%/0.66%=4.93, if actual people numbers are used: 5.3% 3. See 1, no2brexit.com 4. See 1, no2brexit.com 5. See no2brexit.com, linear regression on the nine YouGov polls starting 26 April 2017 (since general election announcement). 6. Based on 31 YouGov polls since August 2016, see no2brexit.com 7. Citizens would include 700,000 UK citizens in the EU for more than 15 years (likely to vote remain), and 12.9 million non-voters from the referendum who have a majority of over 2 million for remain. Residents would include a further 3 million EU residents in the UK who were not given a vote who would mostly vote remain. Electorate includes the 12.9 million with over 2 million for remain. 8. See no2brexit.com/dashboard. Based on population estimates, turnout and voting rates for 18-24s and 65+s, approximately 390,000 shift in favour of remain per year. 9. See no2brexit.com for the polls since the referendum, see https://ig.ft.com/sites/brexit-polling/?mhq5j=e1 10. See no2brexit.com, latest polls, particularly, show a 4% lead for remain. 11. 17.4 million out of 65 million. 5 million includes new 18 year olds, non voters from last time, 700,000 UK residents in the EU who did not get a vote. EU residents in the UK. 12. Average swing to Labour in Article 50 supporting candidate constituencies:9.14%, average swing to Labour in Article 50 non-supporting candidate constituencies: 14.4%. 13. Fact 14. 2,050=750,000/365. 18-24 turnout:58%, support for remain:75%, 65+ turnout 70%, support for remain 33%. (Ipsos Mori), 15. Last three YouGov opinion polls.